Abstract

Heavy tailed distributions have a big role in studying risk data sets. Statisticians in many cases search and try to find new or relatively new statistical models to fit data sets in different fields. This article introduced a relatively new heavy-tailed statistical model by using alpha power transformation and exponentiated log-logistic distribution which called alpha power exponentiated log-logistic distribution. Its statistical properties were derived mathematically such as moments, moment generating function, quantile function, entropy, inequality curves and order statistics. Five estimation methods were introduced mathematically and the behaviour of the proposed model parameters was checked by randomly generated data sets and these estimation methods. Also, some actuarial measures were deduced mathematically such as value at risk, tail value at risk, tail variance and tail variance premium. Numerical values for these measures were performed and proved that the proposed distribution has a heavier tail than others compared models. Finally, three real data sets from different fields were used to show how these proposed models fitting these data sets than other many wells known and related models.

Highlights

  • Modelling data sets in different areas of search such as risk management, economic, and actuarial sciences need heavy-tailed distributions

  • Heavy tailed distributions have a great interest for modelling insurance data set by actuaries in which they are often interested in the chance of a negative outcome which can be expressed via value at risk (VaR)

  • Statistical models which are heavy-tailed have an important role in actuarial science, in providing sufficient descriptions of claim size distributions and for that reason, a noted interest has been shown to learn about these subjects in the previous decade or so, for example, see [Hogg and Klugman [32]; Qi [45]; Hao and Tang [31]; Yang et al [49]; Afify et al [4]], among many others

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Summary

Introduction

Modelling data sets in different areas of search such as risk management, economic, and actuarial sciences need heavy-tailed distributions. Mead et al [41] provide extra mathematical properties to alpha power exponential distribution along with presented alpha power exponentiated Weibull distribution which can model monotone and non-monotone failure rate functions They explain the importance of the new distribution by application on two real data sets. They derived Marshall-Olkin alpha power exponential distribution as a member of this family along with some of its statistical properties They illustrate the superiority of the proposed model through three real data sets. We presented a more flexible version of the LL distribution called alpha power exponentiated log-logistic distribution (APExLLD), which can provide more flexibility in modelling different data sets than other competing models.

Alpha power exponentiated log-logistic distribution
Statistical properties
Heavy-tailed behavior
Moments and moment generating function
Quantile function and mode
Entropy
Lorenz, Bonferroni and Zenga curves
Order statistics
Estimation methods
Maximum likelihood estimation
Ordinary least-squares and weighted least-squares estimation
Anderson-Darling estimation
Cramer-von Mises estimation
Maximum product of spacings estimation
Simulation
Tail value at risk
Tail variance
Numerical study of actuarial measures
Applications
Conclusion
Method
Full Text
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