Abstract
Abstract. This study examined the impacts of projected climate change on heavy snow loads on Finnish forests, where snow-induced forest damage occurs frequently. For snow-load calculations, we used daily data from five global climate models under representative concentration pathway (RCP) scenarios RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, statistically downscaled onto a high-resolution grid using a quantile-mapping method. Our results suggest that projected climate warming results in regionally asymmetric response on heavy snow loads in Finnish forests. In eastern and northern Finland, the annual maximum snow loads on tree crowns were projected to increase during the present century, as opposed to southern and western parts of the country. The change was rather similar both for heavy rime loads and wet snow loads, as well as for frozen snow loads. Only the heaviest dry snow loads were projected to decrease over almost the whole of Finland. Our results are aligned with previous snowfall projections, typically indicating increasing heavy snowfalls over the areas with mean temperature below −8 °C. In spite of some uncertainties related to our results, we conclude that the risk for snow-induced forest damage is likely to increase in the future in the eastern and northern parts of Finland, i.e. in the areas experiencing the coldest winters in the country. The increase is partly due to the increase in wet snow hazards but also due to more favourable conditions for rime accumulation in a future climate that is more humid but still cold enough.
Highlights
Forest damage caused by snow loading on trees occurs frequently in boreal environments
The results are calculated from the observational daily data using both the Finnish Meteorological Institute (FMI) and G08 methods and the values are shown for the total crown snow load as well as for the different snow load types from the FMI method
The annual maximum rime loads, as well as wet snow and frozen snow loads are projected to increase in eastern and northern Finland up to 60 % compared to the period 1980–2009
Summary
Forest damage caused by snow loading on trees occurs frequently in boreal environments. In addition to the northern parts of the continent, frequent snow damage in European forests occurs in central Europe and in mountainous regions, e.g. in the Alps and Pyrenees (Schelhaas et al, 2003; Martín-Alcón et al, 2010). In Finland, insurance companies have paid on average approximately EUR 0.5 million compensation annually within the last three decades due to snow damage of forests, which accounts for about 7 % of the total indemnities paid for forest owners (Finnish Forest Research Institute, 2014). Snow is among the most important abiotic stress factors in the Finnish forests after windstorms which account for about 77 % of the forest damage compensated for by private insurance companies. Trees damaged by snow are susceptible to insect attacks and other kinds of consequential damage (e.g. Schroeder and Eidmann, 1993; Schlyter et al, 2006)
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