Abstract
One of the worst Sahel famines of the twentieth century was initiated by heavy rainfall in 1953. Famine-impelled household migration and elevated rates of morbidity and mortality were widespread. A famine triggered by heavy rains would present a serious challenge to contemporary early warning systems that rely on analysis of food prices and satellite-derived measures of vegetation. In the absense of frequent and extensive field reporting, an effective early warning system would require collection and analysis of daily rainfall data and the development of accurate Sahel climate-crop yield models.
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