Abstract
Heavy lake-effect snowfall (HLES) events are snowfall events enhanced by interactions between lakes and overlying cold air. Significant snowfall rates and accumulations caused during such events disrupt socioeconomic activities and sometimes lead to lethal consequences. The aim of this study is to assess projected changes to HLES by the end of the century (2079–2100) using a regional climate model for the first time with 3D representation for the Laurentian Great Lakes. When compared to observations over the 1989–2010 period, the model is able to realistically reproduce key mechanisms and characteristics of HLES events, thus increasing confidence in future projections. Projected changes to the frequency and amount of HLES suggest decreasing patterns, during the onset, active and decline phases of HLES. Despite reduced lake ice cover that will allow enhanced lake–atmosphere interactions favouring HLES, the warmer temperatures and associated increase in liquid to solid precipitation ratio along with reduced cold air outbreaks contribute to reduced HLES in the future climate. Analysis of the correlation patterns for current and future climates further supports the weaker impact of lake ice fraction on HLES in future climates. Albeit the decreases in HLES frequency and intensity and projected increases in extreme snowfall events (resulting from all mechanisms) raise concerns for impacts on the transportation, infrastructure and hydropower sectors in the region.
Highlights
Heavy lake-effect snowfall (HLES) events are winter snowstorms resulting from the rapid modification of cold air masses passing over the relatively warm waters of large lakes
Once the moisture-laden air hits land, the increased surface roughness causes convergence and upward vertical motion, resulting in HLES. These extreme events are frequent during the cold season downwind of the Laurentian Great Lakes, which provide large areas for lake–atmosphere interactions and are often on the way of the north-westerly flow of cold air coming from the Canadian North
In November 2014, one of the heaviest lake-effect snowfall events on record resulted in the death of more than a dozen people, as thousands of motorists were trapped in vehicles, falling trees triggered power outages and hundreds of roofs and structures collapsed under the weight of the snow
Summary
Heavy lake-effect snowfall (HLES) events are winter snowstorms resulting from the rapid modification of cold air masses passing over the relatively warm waters of large lakes. Once the moisture-laden air hits land, the increased surface roughness causes convergence and upward vertical motion, resulting in HLES. These extreme events are frequent during the cold season downwind of the Laurentian Great Lakes, which provide large areas for lake–atmosphere interactions and are often on the way of the north-westerly flow of cold air coming from the Canadian North. In vehicles, falling trees triggered power outages and hundreds of roofs and structures collapsed under the weight of the snow Given their impacts, it is important to understand how the frequencies, intens2itoife1s1 and timings of these events will change in future climate.
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