Heavy industrial aggregation area's green transformation optimisation pathways exploration with synergistic reduction pursue of CO2 and gaseous pollutants

Abstract

A profound green transformation of China's heavy industrial aggregation regions is required to conquer severe air pollution, and fulfill carbon peak pledge. Here, to clarify the coordinated mechanism and an optimal roadmap for the reduction of CO2 and gaseous pollutants, we integrated input-output modelling, system dynamics, and multi-objective programming to construct a CO2 and gaseous pollutants synergistic reduction model initially; investigated incentive approaches from 2020 to 2035; Hebei, with the largest steel production in China, was adopted as a demonstrative region. Results revealed that intensive dual control of efficiency and structure in energy and industry can accelerate achieving carbon peak in 2029. In optimal case, CO2 emission intensity can reach a 75.2% reduction compared to 2020, and gaseous pollutants continue decline simultaneously (SO2 and NOx can drop by 63% and 48%); and the synergistic reduction level is expected to improve. Thus, vigorously develop decoupling between economy-air pollution-carbon reduction in Hebei. As opposed to efficiency improvement, structural adjustments were demonstrated to be more effective than short-term efficiency improvements. In addition, the estimated development potential of traditional heavy industries such as steel and petrochemicals is limited, whereas the equipment manufacturing industry, closely linked to traditional industries, is expected to continue its development. Furthermore, although in the electrification process, coal consumption is still needed because of its indispensable role in the production process of heavy industries. The results can facilitate policy-making for heavy industrial aggregation areas' green transformation in shaping policies and actions with clear objectives, effective measures, and sound coordination.