Heatwaves, disparities, and immigration

Abstract

This summer a succession of heatwaves has taken place in Europe, the USA, Asia, Australia, Canada, and northern Africa. The front pages of newspapers around the world has been filled with news of deadly heatwaves and wildfires claiming dozens of lives in Japan and Greece, for example. In the Japanese city of Kumagaya, after weeks of extreme heat across the country, at least 44 people were killed because of the temperatures. In 1 week in the Canadian province of Quebec, more than 90 people died because of high temperatures. Greece has seen the worst effects of the heat, with devastating wildfires around the capital killing at least 50 people and injuring hundreds more. And the UK had the driest summer recorded since 1961. The heatwaves, extreme temperatures, and drought have strained the agricultural system of some countries. In Sweden, for example, wildfires have affected 25 000 hectares; as a result, grassland yields and that of cereals have decreased enormously and farmers are struggling to feed their animals in the drought. What are the consequences of these heatwaves in the short and long term? Who are the most affected? And what measures can be taken? The consequences are numerous and various and affect the entire political, social, and economic infrastructure of each country. One such consequence is the increase in food prices. The costs are driven by decreased production of goods sold in shops, which in turn is driven by weather conditions such as extreme cold or extreme heat. Furthermore, the number of people living in cities worldwide is increasing and the inequality between wealthy and poor people is becoming stronger and stronger. WHO estimates that by 2030, 60% of people will live in cities. Cities tend to absorb, produce, and radiate heat because of the presence of asphalt, brick, concrete, and dark roofs, which act as sponges, absorbing the heat during the day and emitting warmth at night. And the more densely populated cities become, the hotter they get. The urban heat island effect, which is when cities become hotter than rural areas because of increased human activities, combined with an elderly population and increased urbanisation, will make the urban population more vulnerable, especially those who are poor. In this context, air conditioning can save lives for those who can afford it, but it makes the outdoor ambient air even hotter for those who don't even have a proper house. Populations that live in poor housing with no air conditioning are suffering from the heat the most. The distribution of the cooling system reflects inequalities among people and, with the increase in fuel costs and the pressure to save energy to reduce pollution, this inequality is projected to become more prominent. The effect of climate change and heatwaves also undermines agriculture and increases competition for water and food resources, and is therefore contributing to instability and decisions to migrate. Higher temperatures could increase the number of people seeking asylum in the EU. Separating out the influences of climate change from social, political, and economic instability is almost impossible. A Columbia University study in 2015 found a strong connection between drought induced by climate change in Syria from 2007 to 2010 causing failure and mass migration—and the civil unrest that followed in 2011. Another recent publication in Science has shown that when temperatures in the source country deviates from an optimum of around 20°C, which is best for agriculture, asylum applications to EU countries increased. In cities, poor areas should be prioritised. Planting more trees and replacing asphalt and bricks with lighter-coloured surfaces could potentially reduce the urban heat island effect. Planning cities in such a way will help the poorest and most disadvantaged people, such as illegal immigrants and homeless people. The current migrant crisis in the Mediterranean is a pressing challenge; even if most of the refugees arriving in Europe list war and conflict as their primary reasons to migrate, climate change is likely to be an important contributing factor. EU countries should all commit to welcoming immigrants who leave their own countries to seek asylum because of the political, social, and economic instability. A sustainable security plan needs to be guaranteed by the EU, and it is imperative that all EU countries commit to invest more in research coordination, funding, and innovation to be able to face such a crisis. Maintaining the commitments set by the Paris agreement should continue to be imperative for all countries to continue tackling climate change, the immigration crisis, and inequalities.