Heatwave 1987: the Piraeus versus Athens case.

Abstract

Heatwaves represent the main indices of climate change, while mortality is one of the established markers of their human effects. For unknown reasons populations adapt to temperature variations/challenges differently. Thus, to allow better precision and prediction, heatwave evaluations should be enriched by historical context and local data. The mortality data for 1987 were collected from the Piraeus municipality registry, whereas data for Athens were obtained from literature retrieved from PUBMED. Ambient characteristics were extracted from the Geronikolou's 1991 BSc thesis and the reports of national organizations. From the death events, the odds ratio and relative risk in Piraeus compared to the Athens were calculated. Finally, a simple neural network proposed the dominant ambient parameter of the heatwave effects in the city residents of each location. The 1987 heatwave was more lethal (seven-fold) in Athens than in Piraeus and dependent on atmospheric nitric oxide (NO) concentration (with probability 0.999). In the case of Piraeus in 1987, ozone characterized the phenomenon (with probability 0.993). The odds of dying due to a heatwave are highly dependent on lifestyle, population sensitivity to preventive measures and public health policy, while the phenomenon was mainly moderated by ozone in Piraeus in 1987, and NO in Athens irrespective of year.