Heating demand with heterogeneity in residential households in the hot summer and cold winter climate zone in China -A quantile regression approach

Abstract

Heating in the Hot Summer and Cold Winter (HSCW) climate zone in China has become the fastest-growing part in urban residential energy consumption, with a high average annual growth rate of 50%. This creates opportunities for decision-makers to make effective policies on impacting energy consumer behavior. However, for these policy intervention strategies to be efficient and equitable, the factors determining heating energy usage need to be known. This study employs the quantile regression model to explore the heterogeneity in consumer response between groups by using survey data from 1075 households in 2016 in Chongqing, China. We identify the characteristics of high heating electricity-consuming households. Households with larger household sizes, more elderly family members, and high-income would tend to consume more electricity. In terms of building characteristics, more rooms and detached houses lead to higher heating electricity consumption. Additionally, higher-performance residential buildings can reduce household heating electricity consumption. Compared to central heating system, using split ACs and distributed electric heaters provide a smoother path towards increasing electricity load to achieve better thermal comfort. Our empirical findings have important regional policy implications to support heating policy design. Finally, strategies for reducing heating demand concerning high heating electricity-consuming households are provided.