Heathens, Heretics, and Cults: The Religious Spectrum of Decision Aiding

Abstract

Over the past quarter century decision analysis has helped decision makers achieve clarity of action in fields that range from business to medicine. Some consulting companies practice primarily within the decision analysis paradigm. Major corporations strive to integrate decision analysis into their decision processes. Yet there are dissenters. To use a religious metaphor, heathens are those who pursue decision-aiding procedures that have different underlying philosophies. Heretics follow the general ideas of decision analysis but wish to change some underpinnings in a ruinous desire to achieve greater consistency with certain experiments involving unaided decision makers. Cults are composed of those who superficially follow the paradigm, but are willing to bend their practice in ways that allow the decision maker to avoid the dictates of logic while appearing to have done a decision analysis. Our examination of these views is based on the warranties each approach can support. The common sense warrantly requires, for example, that the addition of a noninformative new alternative cannot make a decision situation less desirable. A decision recommendation is no better than its warranties.