Heat Waves, Global Warming, and Mitigation

Abstract

I. INTRODUCTION II. HEAT WAVE DEFINITIONS A. Heat Waves B. Heat-related Illnesses and Mortality C. Demographics 1. Individual Characteristics D. Place and Space Matter 1. Geographic Differences 2. Intra-urban Differences III. CLIMATE CHANGE AND HEAT WAVES IV. HEAT WAVES AND PUBLIC PERCEPTION A. Disbelief and Blaming the Victims B. Invisibility of Damage and Media C. Heat Waves and Property Damage 1. Media Coverage 2. Government Response to Disasters V. HEAT WAVE MITIGATION A. Heat Wave Emergency Plans 1. When to Issue Heat Wave Warnings 2. Targeting the Warnings and Making them Effective B. The Importance of Air Conditioning 1. Cooling Centers 2. Availability a. Air Conditioning Required b. Funding LIHEAP C. Large Structural Changes 1. Energy Efficiency and Supply 2. Energy Efficiency 3. Reducing the Urban Heat Island Effect VI. CONCLUSION I. INTRODUCTION Global climate change is almost certain to increase the frequency and intensity of heat waves. Over the last fifty years we have seen an increase in heat wave events, an increase scientists believe is the result, at least in part, of human activity. (1) The recently released Fourth Assessment of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) concludes that heat waves will increase over most land areas over the course of this century. (2) Conservative modeling estimates predict that these increases, absent significant reductions in carbon emissions, will result in a 70% increase in heat-wave deaths in the U.S. over the next forty years. (3) Heat waves differ in important respects from natural disasters like hurricanes or earthquakes. Our collective memory about these events fades quickly once temperatures return to normal. Few people seem to remember, for example, that the Chicago heat wave of 1995 killed more than 700 people, (4) or that more than 52,000 Europeans perished in the extreme heat of the summer of 2003--including more than 14,800 in France alone. (5) Even the 2006 deadly heat wave in California, in which at least 140 and as many as 466 people died, has faded quickly from public consciousness. (6) Furthermore, a prolonged U.S. heat wave during the summer of 1980, during which researchers estimate that between 1,500 and 10,000 people perished, has been long forgotten. (7) Increased heat waves from climate change are not, of course, the only catastrophic effects expected from global warming. Some of the most dramatic effects may require large structural and political changes. For example, massive sea level rise will require infrastructure investments to protect vulnerable shorelines, and prolonged drought may cause political upheaval and unrest in areas of the world where water is already scarce. The good news about increased heat waves, by contrast, is that we already posses the know-how to respond to the corresponding increase in health risk. Heat waves are not a new phenomenon, and some jurisdictions have made impressive strides in reducing heat-wave deaths. But many jurisdictions across the U.S. are ill-prepared to cope. (8) If Hurricane Katrina and its aftermath have taught us anything, it is that we need local, contextualized preparation (taking into account cultural, social and economic realities) to minimize catastrophe. I explore the phenomenon of heat waves in this article for two reasons. (9) First, heat waves already pose a large health threat to our most vulnerable populations and, though we possess the means and know-how to prevent many heat-wave deaths, many U.S. jurisdictions are unprepared to cope. Second, the future looks even worse. As the IPCC Fourth Assessment warns, global climate change will very likely increase the frequency and intensity of extreme heat events over the course of the 21st century. …