Heat Waves and Climate Change: Applying the Health Belief Model to Identify Predictors of Risk Perception and Adaptive Behaviours in Adelaide, Australia

Derick Akompab,Martha Augoustinos,Iain Walker,Susan Williams,Peng Bi,Janet Grant

doi:10.3390/ijerph10062164

Abstract

Heat waves are considered a health risk and they are likely to increase in frequency, intensity and duration as a consequence of climate change. The effects of heat waves on human health could be reduced if individuals recognise the risks and adopt healthy behaviours during a heat wave. The purpose of this study was to determine the predictors of risk perception using a heat wave scenario and identify the constructs of the health belief model that could predict adaptive behaviours during a heat wave. A cross-sectional study was conducted during the summer of 2012 among a sample of persons aged between 30 to 69 years in Adelaide. Participants’ perceptions were assessed using the health belief model as a conceptual frame. Their knowledge about heat waves and adaptive behaviours during heat waves was also assessed. Logistic regression analyses were performed to determine the predictors of risk perception to a heat wave scenario and adaptive behaviours during a heat wave. Of the 267 participants, about half (50.9%) had a high risk perception to heat waves while 82.8% had good adaptive behaviours during a heat wave. Multivariate models found that age was a significant predictor of risk perception. In addition, participants who were married (OR = 0.21; 95% CI, 0.07–0.62), who earned a gross annual household income of ≥$60,000 (OR = 0.41; 95% CI, 0.17–0.94) and without a fan (OR = 0.29; 95% CI, 0.11–0.79) were less likely to have a high risk perception to heat waves. Those who were living with others (OR = 2.87; 95% CI, 1.19–6.90) were more likely to have a high risk perception to heat waves. On the other hand, participants with a high perceived benefit (OR = 2.14; 95% CI, 1.00–4.58), a high “cues to action” (OR = 3.71; 95% CI, 1.63–8.43), who had additional training or education after high school (OR = 2.65; 95% CI, 1.25–5.58) and who earned a gross annual household income of ≥$60,000 (OR = 2.66; 95% CI, 1.07–6.56) were more likely to have good adaptive behaviours during a heat wave. The health belief model could be useful to guide the design and implementation of interventions to promote adaptive behaviours during heat waves.

Highlights

Climate change has been projected to increase the frequency and severity of extreme weather events such as heat waves [1,2]
The results suggested that those who had a high perceived benefit (OR = 2.69; 95% CI, 1.40–5.18) and high “cues to action” (OR = 2.13; 95% CI, 1.09–4.16) were more likely to have good adaptive behaviours during a heat wave
This study used an extreme heat wave scenario to assess public risk perception and identified the factors that are associated with risk perception to heat waves

Summary

Introduction

Climate change has been projected to increase the frequency and severity of extreme weather events such as heat waves [1,2]. Heat waves, characterised by stagnant warm air masses and consecutive nights with high temperatures [3] are considered a public health problem since they are associated with heat-related morbidity and mortality [4]. In 2003, Western Europe experienced one of its worst heat waves which resulted in an estimated 70,000 heat-related deaths [5]. Heat waves are the leading cause of weather-related deaths in the United States with an estimated 688 deaths reported to be directly related to heat each year [8]. In 2010, Russia experienced an unprecedented heat wave that resulted in approximately 15,000 heat-related deaths [9]

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