Heat Wave Vulnerability Mapping for India.

Gulrez Azhar,Partha Ganguly,Dileep Mavalankar,Shubhayu Saha,Jaime Madrigano

doi:10.3390/ijerph14040357

Abstract

Assessing geographic variability in heat wave vulnerability forms the basis for planning appropriate targeted adaptation strategies. Given several recent deadly heatwaves in India, heat is increasingly being recognized as a public health problem. However, to date there has not been a country-wide assessment of heat vulnerability in India. We evaluated demographic, socioeconomic, and environmental vulnerability factors and combined district level data from several sources including the most recent census, health reports, and satellite remote sensing data. We then applied principal component analysis (PCA) on 17 normalized variables for each of the 640 districts to create a composite Heat Vulnerability Index (HVI) for India. Of the total 640 districts, our analysis identified 10 and 97 districts in the very high and high risk categories (> 2SD and 2-1SD HVI) respectively. Mapping showed that the districts with higher heat vulnerability are located in the central parts of the country. On examination, these are less urbanized and have low rates of literacy, access to water and sanitation, and presence of household amenities. Therefore, we concluded that creating and mapping a heat vulnerability index is a useful first step in protecting the public from the health burden of heat. Future work should incorporate heat exposure and health outcome data to validate the index, as well as examine sub-district levels of vulnerability.

Highlights

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report [1] highlights the projected increases in heatwave frequency, intensity and duration, and resulting deaths both globally and in India
Data was extracted from the Census of India 2011, District Level Household Survey (DLHS)-3 data [22], and from the Indian Space Research Organization ISRO server Bhuvan
The principal component analysis (PCA) led to four factors with primary loadings, these appeared to be (1) demographic; (2) socio-economic; (3) environmental; and (4) health factors

Summary

Introduction

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report [1] highlights the projected increases in heatwave frequency, intensity and duration, and resulting deaths both globally and in India. Heatwave events have caused massive deaths in the past; the most famous among them are the European 2003 and Russian 2010 heatwaves, where tens of thousands died [2,3,4]. India has experienced several heatwaves, and most recently, just in the past two years, thousands have reportedly died [5]. Mortality along with increases in ambulance calls and admissions [8,9] resulting from heatwave exposure. While most of the evidence is from North America and Europe, there is an emerging body of evidence from developing countries, including India [10], where heat wave deaths may currently be underestimated [11]. Population adaptation [13] along with preparedness measures have

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Discussion

Conclusion