Abstract
The occurrence of long-lasting severe heat stress, such as in July–August 2003, July 2010, or in April–May 2018 has been one of the biggest meteorological threats in Europe in recent years. The paper focuses on the biometeorological and mortality effects of the hot June that was observed in Central Europe in 2019. The basis of the study was hourly and daily Universal Thermal Climate Index (UTCI) values at meteorological stations in Poland for June 2019. The average monthly air temperature and UTCI values from 1951 to 2018 were analysed as background. Grosswetterlagen calendar of atmospheric circulation was used to assess synoptic conditions of heat wave. Several heat strain measures were applied : net heat storage (S), modelled heart rate (HR), sultriness (HSI), and UTCI index. Actual total mortality (TM) and modelled strong heat-related mortality (SHRM) were taken as indicators of biometeorological consequences of the hot June in 2019. The results indicate that prolonged persistence of unusually warm weather in June 2019 was determined by the synoptic conditions occurring over the European region and causing advection of tropical air. They led to the emergence of heat waves causing 10% increase in TM and 5 times bigger SHRM then in preceding 10 years. Such increase in SHRM was an effect of overheating and overload of circulatory system of human organism.
Highlights
Poland is located entirely in the temperate climate zone of Central Europe, which means a moderate inflow of solar radiation and the dominance of western circulation
In 2019, after a relatively cool and wet May, warm weather appeared in Central Europe and air temperature in Poland increased very quickly
In the studies conducted in recent years, the authors emphasize an increase in mortality and morbidity, especially among the elderly and those with circulatory problems, during days with high Universal Thermal Climate Index (UTCI) values (Urban and Kyselý, 2014; Kuchcik 2017, 2021; Błażejczyk et al, 2018; di Napoli et al, 2018)
Summary
Poland is located entirely in the temperate climate zone of Central Europe, which means a moderate inflow of solar radiation and the dominance of western circulation. In this part of Europe, frequent movement of lows with the accompanying atmospheric fronts and advection of air masses with different, sometimes even contrasting, thermal properties are the cause of the high variability of weather conditions from day to day (Błażejczyk, 2006). Depending on the incoming air masses, extreme hot or cold conditions may occur Sometimes such extreme conditions can persist for a long time, which is usually caused by the development of high pressure blocking systems over eastern Europe (Twardosz and Batko, 2012; Schneidereit et al, 2012; Tishchenko et al, 2013). Cheshire (2016), Błażejczyk et al (2018), Gasparrini et al (2015), Kuchcik (2017, 2021), di Napoli et al (2018), Nastos and Matzarakis (2012), Revich and Shaposhnikov (2012) as well as Urban and Kysely (2014) reported an increase in mortality and morbidity
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