Heat Island dynamics and heat stress implications on the population of El-Mansourah conurbation, Egypt: temporal and proposed solutions using MODIS imagery and ENVI-met simulation

Abstract

In Egypt, El-Mansourah Conurbation (EMC) is the second largest urban complex after Cairo Conurbation. This study focuses on identifying seasonal trends in land surface temperature during the daytime/nighttime in both urban and rural areas (RA), as well as the corresponding urban heat island (UHI) intensity 2001 to 2021. A time series of the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (Terra MODIS) images was analyzed using the statistical methods of Mann-Kendall test (MKT) and Theil-Sen estimator (TSE). The findings showed that the diurnal cooling in ranged from −0.66 to −0.58 °C (p < .01) across all seasons. In contrast, the nocturnal UHI exhibited a warming trend in all seasons (except for spring) ranging from 0.08 to 0.16 °C (p > .1). Calculations of the Temperature-Humidity Index showed a decline in the population comfort over time, especially in the hot months, while there was a noticeable amelioration in the cool ones. To explore potential mitigation strategies, the simulation capabilities of ENVI-met were utilized. Based on a simple scenario, the ambient temperature of Salah Salem Street (SST) decreased by more than 2 °C. One suggestion put forth by the research is to implement mitigation measures to address the adverse consequences that naturally arise from the unavoidable dynamics of urban areas.