Heat is associated with short-term increases in household food insecurity in 150 countries and this is mediated by income.

Abstract

Rising temperatures are expected to stall progress on food insecurity by reducing agricultural yields in the coming decades. But hot periods may also increase food insecurity within days when it gets too hot to work and earn an income, thus limiting households' capability to purchase food. Here I exploit variations in heat levels during a household survey spanning 150 countries in a quasi-natural experiment to show that particularly hot weeks are associated with higher chances of food insecurity among households (0.5767, 95% confidence interval 0.2958-0.8576, t = 4.024, d.f. = 427,816, P < 0.001). This association is mediated by reductions in income and health for households and the effects are stronger in countries with lower incomes and more agricultural or precarious forms of employment. The results highlight the importance of labour market disruptions for food insecurity and suggest integration of these concerns into heat action plans and food programmes.