Heat health risk assessment analysing heatstroke patients in Fukuoka City, Japan.

Nishat Tasnim Toosty,Aya Hagishima,Ken-Ichi Tanaka,Ahmed Mancy Mosa

doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0253011

Nishat Tasnim Toosty, Aya Hagishima + Show 2 more

Open Access

https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0253011

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Journal: PloS one	Publication Date: Jun 21, 2021
Citations: 19	License type: CC BY 4.0

Affiliation: Kyushu University, University of Dhaka

Abstract

BackgroundClimate change, as a defining issue of the current time, is causing severe heat-related illness in the context of extremely hot weather conditions. In Japan, the remarkable temperature increase in summer caused by an urban heat island and climate change has become a threat to public health in recent years.MethodsThis study aimed to determine the potential risk factors for heatstroke by analysing data extracted from the records of emergency transport to the hospital due to heatstroke in Fukuoka City, Japan. In this regard, a negative binomial regression model was used to account for overdispersion in the data. Age-structure analyses of heatstroke patients were also embodied to identify the sub-population of Fukuoka City with the highest susceptibility.ResultsThe daily maximum temperature and wet-bulb globe temperature (WBGT), along with differences in both the mean temperature and time-weighted temperature from those of the consecutive past days were detected as significant risk factors for heatstroke. Results indicated that there was a positive association between the resulting risk factors and the probability of heatstroke occurrence. The elderly of Fukuoka City aged 70 years or older were found to be the most vulnerable to heatstroke. Most of the aforementioned risk factors also encountered significant and positive associations with the risk of heatstroke occurrence for the group with highest susceptibility.ConclusionThese results can provide insights for health professionals and stakeholders in designing their strategies to reduce heatstroke patients and to secure the emergency transport systems in summer.

Highlights

Climate change is a perpetual global challenge [1] that requires prompt action
The daily maximum temperature and wet-bulb globe temperature (WBGT), along with differences in both the mean temperature and time-weighted temperature from those of the consecutive past days were detected as significant risk factors for heatstroke
The long-term forecasts of global climate have suggested a steady increase in the global-scale annual temperature, worldwide experts have come to a consensus that the last three decades have been successively warmer than any preceding decades since 1850, as the Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) [2] reported

Summary

Introduction

Climate change is a perpetual global challenge [1] that requires prompt action. the long-term forecasts of global climate have suggested a steady increase in the global-scale annual temperature, worldwide experts have come to a consensus that the last three decades have been successively warmer than any preceding decades since 1850, as the Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) [2] reported. Urban people, being exposed to higher temperatures, suffer from the consequences of temperate weather [2, 3]. In light of this background, the health risks due to the temperature increase have been recognised as a serious future impact of climate change [4,5,6]. As a defining issue of the current time, is causing severe heat-related illness in the context of extremely hot weather conditions. In Japan, the remarkable temperature increase in summer caused by an urban heat island and climate change has become a threat to public health in recent years

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