Abstract
AbstractSea surface temperature in the Arabian Sea Mini Warm Pool has been suggested to be one of the factors that affects the Indian summer monsoon. In this paper, we analyze the annual ocean heat content (OHC) of this region during 1993–2010, using in situ data, satellite observations, and a model simulation. We find that OHC increases significantly in the region during this period relative to the north Indian Ocean, and propose that this increase could have caused the decrease in Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall that occurred at the same time.
Highlights
The region in the southeastern Arabian Sea from 4∘ –14∘N to 68∘−78∘E is referred to as the Arabian Sea Mini Warm Pool (ASMWP; Shenoi et al, 1999)
The comparison between in situ and satellite-derived tropical cyclone heat potential (TCHP) shows a bias of 8.9 kJ cm−2 with a coefficient of determination, R2, of 0.82 and root mean square error (RMSE) of 9.4 kJ cm−2 (Figure 1)
It is noteworthy that Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall (ISMR) dropped from 910 to 820 mm during 1993–2010 (Figure 2), the trend is not statistically significant (p = 0.230), suggesting that there is an inverse relationship between ISMR and ASMWP ocean heat content (OHC)
Summary
The region in the southeastern Arabian Sea from 4∘ –14∘N to 68∘−78∘E is referred to as the Arabian Sea Mini Warm Pool (ASMWP; Shenoi et al, 1999). Joseph (1990), Rao and Sivakumar (1999), Deepa et al (2007), Vinaychandran et al (2007), and Sanil Kumar et al (2004) investigated the impact of ASMWP SST on the summer-monsoon onset vortex. Joseph (1990) suggested a need to study the ASMWP and its impact on the Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall (ISMR). We show that ASMWP OHC has been increasing from 1993 to 2010, while ISMR has been decreasing at the same time This connection points toward a possible linkage between the two variables, with the increased OHC leading to a southward shift of atmospheric convection thereby weakening rainfall over India (see Section 4)
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