Health spending follows pace of population aging: challenges lying ahead of the largest Western balkan market.

Abstract

Humanity has almost won its battle with many infectious diseases, thus increasing longevity, but is now confronted with challenges arising from population aging (1). A blessing turned into a curse as modern societies began struggling with prosperity diseases proliferation (2). Such obstacles are notable in the largest Western Balkan country (1). One-fifth of the Serbian population is aged 65, where that age group holds 8% globally (3). Serbia has a negative population growth and descending fertility rates, which places its population among the oldest in Europe (4). Following these trends, it is estimated that population older than 75 will make up amajority in the next two decades forming a T shaped age pyramid (5). Within the broader South East European region, population aging trend is clearly present for decades and shows clear signs of acceleration (6). This phenomenon originated from tumultuous changes in terms of political and economic stability affecting the Balkans in past decades. During the civil war in the 1990s, there has been an exodus of refugees from former parts of Yugoslavia to Serbia. This influx of people accounted for 5% of the total Serbian population count, but left no positive mark on the overall fertility rates due to similar reproductive behavior of internally displaced people (7). Destitution caused by sanctions placed by the Security Council of the UN forced indigenous people to embark on massive emigrations toward richer and more viable economies. Additional impacts on renewal of demographic potential were “brain drain” consisting of almost 50% of skilled emigrants younger than 40 (8). Difficulties in finding a partner of the opposite sex are also noteworthy. Even though the ratio of men and women is even at reproductive age, the proportion of each gender in rural and urban settings is significantly off-balance (9). Also, the age for womenwhen couples decide on having their first child has shifted from 25 in 2001 to 27 in 2011 (5).