Health risk assessment of soil trace elements using the Sequential Gaussian Simulation approach.

Abstract

In this study, the performance of the Sequential Gaussian Simulation (SGS) approach was studied with the aim of accurately determining local health risk distributions associated with trace elements (V, Cr, Mn, Co, Ni, Cu, Zn, As, and Pb). This study plays a crucial role in determining the distribution of health risk levels, especially from heavy metals. In the SGS approach, health risk levels (non-carcinogenic and carcinogenic) were calculated for pixel sizes of 250 × 250 m2. Results were compared to the conventional Ordinary Kriging (OK) method. The cross-validation performances of both methods were compared. Non-carcinogenic health risks calculated according to SGS and OK for children were, respectively, ρc: 0.57 and 0.23, RMSE: 0.45 and 0.57, and MAE: 0.33 and 0.43. In the case of adults, non-carcinogenic SGS and OK results were, respectively, ρc: 0.53 and 0.24, RMSE: 0.06 and 0.07, and MAE: 0.04 and 0.05 for adults. Carcinogenic health risk estimates obtained by SGS and OK were, respectively, ρc: 0.72 and 0.31, RMSE: 4.1 × 10-5 and 5.8 × 10-5, and MAE: 3.2 × 10-5 and 4.3 × 10-5 in the case of children, and in the case of adults the results were, respectively, ρc: 0.71 and 0.30, RMSE: 5 × 10-6 and 4.3 × 10-6, and MAE: 4 × 10-6 and 5 × 10-6. These results indicated that SGS offered a more accurate approach in determining health risk distributions.