Health Risk Assessment and Projection of Municipal Solid Waste Disposal in China

Abstract

Background China’s Municipal solid waste (MSW) is growing rapidly. Incineration and landfill are two main approaches of MSW disposal and both of them emit different types of ambient pollutants and threaten human health. There lacks systematic health risk assessment and projections of MSW incineration and landfill in China. Methods We established the historical MSW incineration and landfill emission inventories from 2015 to 2017 and used the Gaussian Diffusion Model to simulate the spatial distribution of ambient pollutants. We then used Risk Quotients Model to assess the non-carcinogenic and carcinogenic health risks through inhalation exposure. Besides, we set seven possible MSW incineration development scenarios to predict health risk levels in 2035, considering the effect of population growth, incineration rate, waste classification and recycling, and technology progress. Results The results show that non-carcinogenic risk caused by MSW incineration from 2015 to 2017 was lower than landfill at the national level. Both of them were meet the maximum acceptable level (HI ≤ 1). From 2015 to 2017, carcinogenic risks caused by landfill were 9.42 × 10-6, 9.40 × 10-6, 9.37 × 10-6, nine times larger than the maximum acceptable level (CR ≤ 1×10-6). Carcinogenic risks caused by incineration were 5.71 × 10-6, 7.92 × 10-6, 9.44 × 10-6, five to nine times larger than the maximum acceptable level. Projection results show that compared to the baseline scenario, through classification and recycling, changing incinerator furnace, and improving, national health risk levels will be decreased by 24%, 94% and 97%. Conclusions We assessed the health risks caused by MSF disposal and found MSF incineration a relatively low risk alternative disposal approach compared to waste landfill. In the future, local government should reduce MSF disposal health risks by optimizing the selection of incinerators locations, improving the garbage sorting recycling system, and strengthening information disclosure and communications.