Health in a cold climate

Abstract

The British economy is edging out of a severe economic recession, during which the future of international financial systems seemed in doubt. The scale of debt is comparable to that following the Second World War, and national borrowing is predicted to reach 80% of gross domestic product by 2013. We have suffered a permanent loss in national output of 6–7%. The inevitable reduction in funding for public services is already being discussed widely by the political parties. It is timely to consider the possible impacts on the NHS, which has enjoyed real increases in funding of almost 7% per year in England up to 2010/11, overall and on general practice. These challenges have been addressed in an analysis undertaken by the King's Fund and the Institute for Fiscal Studies. How cold will it be? 1 analyses the funding consequences for the NHS over the next 6 years. Three possible funding scenarios are described: ‘tepid’, with annual real increases of 2–3% over the next 6 years; ‘cold’, with no change in NHS funding; and ‘arctic’, with annual reductions of 1–2% in funding up …