Health impacts from TRAPs and carbon emissions in the projected electric vehicle growth and energy generation mix scenarios in Malaysia

Abstract

Road transport contributes over 70% of air pollution in urban areas and is the second largest contributor to the total carbon dioxide emissions in Malaysia at 21% in 2016. Transport-related air pollutants (TRAPs) such as NOx, SO2, CO and particulate matter (PM) pose significant threats to the urban population's health. Malaysia has targeted to deploy 885,000 EV cars on the road by 2030 in the Low Carbon Mobility Blueprint (LCMB). This study aims to quantify the health co-benefits of electric vehicle adoption from their impacts on air quality in Malaysia. Two EV uptake projections, i.e. LCMB and Revised EV Adoption (REVA) projections, and five electricity generation mix scenarios were modelled up to 2040. We used comparative health risk assessment to estimate the potential changes in mortality and burden of diseases (BoD) from the emissions in each scenario. Intake fractions and exposure-risk functions were used to calculate the burden from respiratory diseases (PM2.5, NOx, SO2, CO), cardiovascular diseases and lung cancer (PM2.5). Results showed that along with a net reduction of carbon emissions across all scenarios, there could be reduced respiratory mortality from NOx by 10,200 mortality (176,200 DALYs) and SO2 by 2600 mortality (45,400 DALYs) per year in 2040. However, there could also be additional 719 mortality (9900 DALYs) per year from PM2.5 and 329 mortality (5600 DALYs) from CO per year. The scale of reduction in mortality and BoD from NOx and SO2 are significantly larger than the scale of increase from PM2.5 and CO, indicating potential net positive health impacts from the EV adoption in the scenarios. The health cost savings from the reduced BoD of respiratory mortality could reach up to RM 7.5 billion per year in 2040. In conclusion, EV is a way forward in promoting a healthy and sustainable future transport in Malaysia.