Health impacts and cost-benefit analyses of surface O3 and PM2.5 over the U.S. under future climate and emission scenarios

Abstract

Health impacts of surface ozone (O3) and fine particulate matter (PM2.5) are of major concern worldwide. In this work, the Environmental Benefits Mapping and Analysis Program tool is applied to estimate the health and economic impacts of projected changes in O3 and PM2.5 in the U.S. in future (2046–2055) decade relative to current (2001–2010) decade under the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5 climate scenarios. Future annual-mean O3 reductions under RCP 4.5 prevent ~1,800 all-cause mortality, 761 respiratory hospital admissions (HA), and ~1.2 million school loss days annually, and result in economic benefits of ~16 billion, 29 million, and 132 million U.S. dollars (USD), respectively. By contrast, the projected future annual-mean O3 increases under RCP8.5 cause ~2,400 mortality, 941 respiratory HA, and ~1.6 million school loss days annually and result in economic disbenefits of ~21 billion, 36 million, and 175 million USD, respectively. Health benefits of reduced O3 double under RCP4.5 and health dis-benefits of increased O3 increase by 1.5 times under RCP8.5 in future with 2050 population and baseline incidence rate. Because of the reduction in projected future PM2.5 over CONUS under both scenarios, the annual avoided all-cause deaths, cardiovascular HA, respiratory HA, and work loss days are ~63,000 and ~83,000, ~5,300 and ~7,000, ~12,000 and ~15,000, and ~7.8 million and ~10 million, respectively, leading to economic benefits of ~560 and ~740 billion, ~240 and ~320 million, ~450 and ~590 million, and ~1,400 and ~1,900 million USD for RCP4.5 and 8.5, respectively. Health benefits of reduced PM2.5 for future almost double under both scenarios with the largest benefits in urban areas. RCP8.5 projects larger health and economic benefits due to a greater reduction in PM2.5 but with a warmer atmosphere and higher O3 pollution than RCP4.5. RCP4.5 leads to multiple-benefit goals including reduced O3 and PM2.5, reduced mortality and morbidity, and saved costs. Greater reduction in future PM2.5 under RCP4.5 should be considered to achieve larger multi-benefits.