Health Impact of Road Traffic Emissions, Forecasted Decrease Associated to Implementation of European Standards in French Vehicle Fleet

Abstract

SAB4-PD-01 Session Title: Air Pollution: Mechanisms and Health Introduction: Health Impact Assessment (HIA) of road transports emissions, based on exposure response functions (ERF) from epidemiologic studies, have influenced new European standards for terrestrial vehicles emissions. This study aims at quantifying the health impact decrease attributable to European Standards Implementation in France between 2000 and 2010. Methods: Urban exposure to road traffic emissions (RTE) was evaluated with data from French air quality-monitoring network during the year 2000. The concentrations in NO2 and PM10 were estimated by a geostatistic approach in grid cells of 4 km. Modelling the emissions of stationary and mobile sources refined this approach. The second approach allows estimating the contribution ratio of RTE in the total atmospheric concentrations. The population data in each cell and stratified by age were extracted from the 1999 French census. HIA method followed the WHO and InVS methodologic recommendations. Health impacts (HI) were estimated with European epidemiologic ERF derived for elderly, adults, and children. For children, new health outcomes such as preterm birth or childhood cancers were included. The morbidity and mortality rates for the general population came from French sanitary statistics. Comparison of the results between 2000 and 2010 made it possible to quantify the reduction associated with the introduction of new standards of emission. Results: In urban area, mean ambient concentration (all sources) should have decreased by 27% for NO2 and 28% for PM10 during the 2000 to 2010 period. However, RTE contribution rates will follow a lower decreasing trend for both pollutants (respectively 18%, 20%). In 2000, main HI due to RTE are long-term mortality (7700 cases per year), cardiovascular hospitalization (10,600), and short-term mortality in adults (3600). In children, majors HI are bronchitis (258,000), asthma attacks (47,200), and premature birth (11,765). Contribution of RTE to HI results will decrease in 2010 by 17% to 49% according to health outcomes. Conclusions: Major uncertainties, except those in the exposure assessment, come under ERF used for children. Evidence of causality between certain health effects and the air pollution has not yet been strongly shown. ERF for childhood cancer and preterm birth are based on a single epidemiologic study. Moreover, we were unable to take demographic and population health evolutions into account. HIA results plead for accompanying actions on traffic flux that will increase emissions standard benefits for population health.