Health effects of climate change in the UK – current evidence and research gaps

Abstract

Scientific consensus generally indicates that climate change is likely to cause a range of direct and indirect effects on human health in developing and developed countries. We reviewed the scientific evidence on the health effects of climate change in the UK in the light of the 2009 UK Climate Projections. We focused on the effects of temperature and heatwaves, floods, air pollution, aeroallergens, vector-borne diseases, airborne, water and food-borne diseases, and UV radiation exposure on public health. Literature reviews were conducted on these topics to identify climate-sensitive health outcomes, population exposure patterns, exposure-response relationships (where possible), and vulnerable populations and areas in the UK. Quantitative health impact assessment methods were used to estimate the effect of current and future temperatures and air pollution (ground-level ozone) on population health under a range of scenarios. In addition, the impacts of climate change in the indoor environment, and the trade-offs between indoor air quality and energy efficiency measures were discussed. Furthermore, health co-benefits from policies to reduce greenhouse gas emissions were illustrated with examples from the household energy, urban transport, electricity generation, and food and agriculture sectors. Despite uncertainties in the analysis, this paper provides strong evidence indicating that climate change is likely to act as a risk modifier aggravating existing public health problems (heat and flood related deaths, air pollution, allergies, mental health, health inequalities, etc.) in the UK. Research gaps in epidemiological evidence, environmental exposure assessment, disease surveillance, and evaluation of public health interventions (e.g. early warning systems for heatwaves, air pollution, pollen and floods) will be identified and discussed in this context.