Health Check: Major Surgery or Cosmetic Procedures? Bilan de santé: Opération de grande importance ou démarche cosmétique Der Gesundheitscheck: Größere Operation oder kosmetischer Eingriff?

Abstract

SummaryHealth Check: Major Surgery or Cosmetic Procedures?The impacts of the CAP Health Check proposals are examined using a partial equilibrium modelling framework. Health Check scenario projections are compared with a Baseline projection that assumes unchanged policies. The results indicate that the impact of the Health Check reforms on agriculture in the EU is small. The further decoupling of direct payments has a marginal impact on production and prices in the arable and livestock sectors. Under current CAP policy most of the arable area payment has been included in the Single Farm Payment and thus extending decoupling further has little impact, while the retention of the coupled Suckler Cow Premium and Ewe Annual Premium within the proposals help to maintain animal numbers. The proposed changes to intervention prices in the crop sector have no impact since favourable market price conditions mean that intervention purchases are not triggered in the Baseline. The proposed phased expansion in milk quotas prior to abolition in 2015 has little impact at the overall EU‐27 level since the already agreed 2 per cent increase in milk quotas in the 2008/2009 marketing year absorbs latent EU production potential under the conditions projected here. Nonetheless, there is a redistribution of milk production between member states within the EU.