Health and healthcare in the year 2040 – Facts for planning a complex and uncertain future

Abstract

Abstract Background In the Stockholm region, a regional political assembly is responsible for health care services for a population of 2.3 million. In November 2017, the political leadership decided on a programme to project health and healthcare developments in the Stockholm region until 2040 as a basis for a longterm health plan. This presentation aims to describe the methodology used, share some results and raise some questions for further work. Through the presentation we also seek collaboration with European partners involved in similar health planning work. Methodology Six perspectives for analysis were defined and under each a set of areas for deeper analysis identified. It was agreed that the planning should be fact-driven. Under the constraint of availability, data covering the period 2000 to 2017 was collected for around 90 variables. Data was gathered from various publicly available databases and was analysed in Microsoft Excel. Results Stockholm’s population increased continuously since the millennial shift and could increase by another 28% until 2040. Since 2000, life expectancy increased by 2 years for women and 3 years for men. More than 85% of the burden of disease is caused by chronic diseases. However, the overall disease burden per 100 000 population has been decreasing over the years. In 2017, more than 21 million outpatient care visits were done. Extrapolations of these trends show that the disease burden per capita will continue to decrease, but the total burden of disease as well as demand for health care will continue to increase. Discussion A fact-based analysis of future health and healthcare proved to be an efficient base for planning and discussions of future health care services. Results confirmed some well-established perceptions of developments but also pointed to some misconceptions and established “facts” that proved to be false. New digital services make prediction of the future health service mix dynamic and challenging. Key messages To meet future health care needs, future health and health care trends should be planned for and considered in decision making processes. Forecasts and health care planning should be fact-based to have an as accurate picture of future health and health care trends as possible.