Health and economic impacts of air pollution induced by weather extremes over the continental U.S.

Abstract

Extreme weather events may enhance ozone (O3) and fine particulate matter (PM2.5) pollution, causing additional adverse health effects. This work aims to evaluate the health and associated economic impacts of changes in air quality induced by heat wave, stagnation, and compound extremes under the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5 climate scenarios. The Environmental Benefits Mapping and Analysis Program-Community Edition is applied to estimate health and related economic impacts of changes in surface O3 and PM2.5 levels due to heat wave, stagnation, and compound extremes over the continental U.S. during past (i.e., 2001–2010) and future (i.e., 2046–2055) decades under the two RCP scenarios.Under the past and future decades, the weather extremes-induced concentration increases may lead to several tens to hundreds O3-related deaths and several hundreds to over ten thousands PM2.5-related deaths annually. High mortalities and morbidities are estimated for populated urban areas with strong spatial heterogeneities. The estimated annual costs for these O3 and PM2.5 related health outcomes are $5.5–12.5 and $48.6–140.7 billion U.S. dollar for mortalities, and $8.9–97.8 and $19.5–112.5 million for morbidities, respectively. Of the extreme events, the estimated O3– and PM2.5–related mortality and morbidity attributed to stagnation are the highest, followed by heat wave or compound extremes. Large increases in heat wave and compound extreme events in the future decade dominate changes in mortality during these two extreme events, whereas population growth dominates changes in mortality during stagnation that is projected to occur less frequently. Projected reductions of anthropogenic emissions under bothRCP scenarios compensate for the increased mortality due to increasedoccurrence for heat wave and compound extremes in the future. These results suggest a need to further reduce air pollutant emissions during weather extremes to minimize the adverse impacts of weather extremes on air quality and human health.