Abstract
We compare the health and economic costs of early and delayed mandated suppression and the unmitigated spread of 'first-wave' COVID-19 infections in Australia in 2020. Using a fit-for-purpose SIQRM-compartment model for susceptible, infected, quarantined, recovered and mortalities on active cases, that we fitted from recorded data, a value of a statistical life year (VSLY) and an age-adjusted value of statistical life (A-VSL), we find that the economic costs of unmitigated suppression are multiples more than for early mandated suppression. We also find that using an equivalent VSLY welfare loss from fatalities to estimated GDP losses, drawn from survey data and our own estimates of the impact of suppression measures on the economy, means that for early suppression not to be the preferred strategy requires that Australia would have to incur more than 12,500-30,000 deaths, depending on the fatality rate with unmitigated spread, to the economy costs of early mandated suppression. We also find that early rather than delayed mandated suppression imposes much lower economy and health costs and conclude that in high-income countries, like Australia, a 'go early, go hard' strategy to suppress COVID-19 results in the lowest estimated public health and economy costs.
Highlights
As of the end of May 2020, the global number of COVID-19 cumulative cases and reported fatalities, respectively, exceeded 6 million and 370,000 [1]
We evaluate whether a lock-down to suppress COVID-19 in Australia was justified by estimating the health and economic costs for three scenarios
If the transition time is as short as 1 month, the domestic economy recovers quickly and the losses in GDP are the smallest
Summary
As of the end of May 2020, the global number of COVID-19 cumulative cases and reported fatalities, respectively, exceeded 6 million and 370,000 [1]. In response to the pandemic, many countries have imposed various types of suppression measures at different times to reduce the growth rate in COVID-19 infections [1]. Severe suppression measures (e.g., school and university closures, travel restrictions, mandatory social distancing requirements), when implemented in combination, have received the moniker, ‘lock-down’. Health and economic costs of early and delayed suppression and the unmitigated spread of COVID-19. We have included the ‘Full Data’ set Excel file as a Supporting information file
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