He who has the pipeline calls the tune? Russia's energy power against the background of the shale “revolutions”

Abstract

Russian energy policy is usually considered in the regional context – in terms of its energy power capability and strength vis-à-vis the EU and the post-Soviet states. This study shows that in order to understand Russia's energy power, even in the regional context of its relations with the EU, it is necessary to consider the impact of international changes in the energy sector. The oil and gas shale “revolutions” represent such a global factor of influence. Even if their consequences are not yet clear, they have already become an important challenge for Russian energy policy and power. This policy-oriented article, guided by neoclassical realism, analyzes what the shale “revolutions” mean for Russia's energy policy and its power capabilities vis-à-vis the EU, how the Russian political elite perceive this development and how Russia reacts to it. In this context, Russian power capabilities look more moderate.