HDDM과 BFM을 이용한 NOx와 VOC 배출량에 대한 오존민감도계수 산정 및 결과 비교: 2007년 6월 수도권 사례

Abstract

The accuracy of ozone sensitivity coefficients estimated with HDDM (High-order Decoupled Direct Method) can vary depending on the <TEX>$NO_x$</TEX> (Nitrogen Oxides) and VOC (Volatile Organic Compound) conditions. In order to evaluate the applicability of HDDM over the Seoul Metropolitan Area (SMA) during a high ozone episode in 2007 June, we compare BFM (Brute Force Method) and HDDM in terms of the <TEX>$1^{st}$</TEX>-order ozone sensitivity coefficient to explain ozone change in response to changes in NOx and VOC emissions, and the <TEX>$2^{nd}$</TEX>-order ozone sensitivity coefficient to represent nonlinear response of ozone to the emission changes. BFM and HDDM estimate comparable ozone sensitivity coefficients, exhibiting similar spatial and temporal variations over the SMAduring the episode. NME (Normalized Mean Error) between BFM and HDDM for the episode average <TEX>$1^{st}$</TEX>- and <TEX>$2^{nd}$</TEX>-order ozone sensitivity coefficients to NOx and VOC emissions are less than 3% and 9%, respectively. For the daily comparison, NME for the <TEX>$1^{st}$</TEX>- and <TEX>$2^{nd}$</TEX>-order ozone sensitivity coefficients are less than 4% (<TEX>$R^2$</TEX> > 0.96) and 15% (<TEX>$R^2$</TEX> > 0.90), respectively. Under the emission conditions used in this study, two methods show negative episode average <TEX>$1^{st}$</TEX>-order ozone sensitivity coefficient to <TEX>$NO_x$</TEX> emissions over the core SMA. The <TEX>$2^{nd}$</TEX>-order ozone sensitivity coefficient to <TEX>$NO_x$</TEX> emissions leads ozone to respond muchnonlinear to the reduction in <TEX>$NO_x$</TEX> emissions over Seoul. Nonlinear ozone response to reduction in VOC emissions is mitigated due to the <TEX>$2^{nd}$</TEX>-order ozone sensitivity coefficient which is much smaller than the <TEX>$1^{st}$</TEX>-order ozone sensitivity coefficient to the emissions in the magnitude.