HAZGRIDX: earthquake forecasting model for ML≥ 5.0 earthquakes in Italy based on spatially smoothed seismicity

Abstract

We present a five-year, time-independent, earthquake-forecast model for earthquake magnitudes of 5.0 and greater in Italy using spatially smoothed seismicity data. The model is called HAZGRIDX, and it was developed based on the assumption that future earthquakes will occur near locations of historical earthquakes; it does not take into account any information from tectonic, geological, or geodetic data. Thus HAZGRIDX is based on observed earthquake occurrence from seismicity data, without considering any physical model. In the present study, we calculate earthquake rates on a spatial grid platform using two declustered catalogs: 1) the Parametric catalog of Italian earthquakes (Catalogo Parametrico dei Terremoti Italiani, CPTI04) that contains the larger earthquakes from MW 7.0 since 1100; and 2) the Italian seismicity catalogue (Catalogo della Sismicita Italiana, CSI 1.1) that contains the small earthquakes down to ML 1.0, with a maximum of ML 5.9, over the past 22 years (1981-2003). The model assumes that earthquake magnitudes follow the Gutenberg-Richter law, with a uniform b-value. The forecast rates are presented in terms of the expected numbers of ML>5.0 events per year for each grid cell of about 10 km × 10 km. The final map is derived by averaging the earthquake potentials that come from these two different catalogs: CPTI04 and CSI 1.1. We also describe the earthquake occurrences in terms of probabilities of occurrence of one event within a specified magnitude bin, DM0.1, in a five year time period. HAZGRIDX is one of several forecasting models, scaled to five and ten years, that have been submitted to the Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Probability (CSEP) forecasting center in ETH, Zurich, to be tested for Italy.