Abstract
Climate hazards are a significant challenge for human and environmental systems in the Gobi Desert, Asia. Drought and extreme cold events frame ecological productivity and livelihood viability in the region. To investigate hazard impact this study uses the Standard Precipitation Index (SPI) to identify drought in southern Mongolia from 1970-2006. It then examines the relationship of drought with climate factors and its interaction with local human and livestock populations. Stressing the extreme winter disasters of 1999-2001 the study then evaluates the resilience of human-environment systems in the Gobi .Results indicate that drought is recurrent in the region, reaching extreme intensity most recently in 2005-2006. In contrast to the prevailing concept of drought impacting severe winters, the study did not find a connection between the two natural hazards. The principal long-term correlation of drought is with human population rather than natural factors, extreme conditions, or livestock numbers. Findings reflect human and landscape resilience when encountering drought and extreme winter conditions.
Highlights
IntroductionWithin the region the Gobi Desert environment, shared by southern Mongolia and northern China, is experiencing shifting biophysical and anthropogenic dimensions
Home to the world’s “greatest concentration of areas of rapid landcover changes, and in particular dryland degradation” [1], Asia is impacted by changing climates, increasing aridification, rapid socioeconomic and political transition, and evolving land use practices that affect both the physical and human geography [2,3,4].Within the region the Gobi Desert environment, shared by southern Mongolia and northern China, is experiencing shifting biophysical and anthropogenic dimensions
The two forces can be linked by a social-ecological system (SES) theory foundation that combines bio-physical and social components that enable conceptual analysis addressing the vulnerability, adaptation and resilience of systems [18,19]. The strength of these analytical strategies is their relevance to the Gobi Desert and ability to geographically integrate human and physical factors [5,20,21] Using social-ecological system theory this paper examines how rangelands can experience disturbance, such as grazing or drought, yet maintain functioning
Summary
Within the region the Gobi Desert environment, shared by southern Mongolia and northern China, is experiencing shifting biophysical and anthropogenic dimensions. A warming climate, increased precipitation volatility, and natural phenomena such as drought and dzud (extreme cold winter weather) impact the landscape [57] economic, population, development and land use pressures affect human well-being. Such factors create ecological and livelihood dynamics that challenge system functionality. While natural processes are shared with other regions, ecosystem determinants are distinctly tied to local landscapes. Research embedded in the Asian environment is critical to assess today’s dominant ecological concerns and address their future implications [8,9]
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