Hazard identification and scenario selection of ship grounding accidents

Abstract

The objectives of the present paper are to identify the hazard of ship grounding; where a ship runs on a rock with a forward speed, and to select a set of credible scenarios with a limited number that can still represent all possible situations of the accidents. For this purpose, the statistics of ship grounding accidents recorded by authorities for the period of 46 years during 1970–2016 are collated. An extensive analysis is undertaken to examine the statistical characteristics in association with random variables influencing the consequence of grounding. A total of six parameters, namely ship's forward speed, ship's trim angle, rock tip eccentricity, rock length, rock width and rock height are considered as random variables where the displacement or mass of the grounded ship is fixed. Each of the random variables is then formulated with a probability density function. A sampling technique is applied to the probabilistic selection of the grounding scenarios which are to be used for the consequence analysis within the framework of quantitative risk assessment. Important insights developed from the present study are discussed. Details of the analyses are documented.