Abstract
Coastal zones currently face severe weaknesses and are subject to high-risk situations. Tropical storm events can contribute to the occurrence of these high-risk situations by causing storm surges with high water levels and, consequently, episodes of wave-overtopping and coastal flooding. This work considers a series of storm scenarios and analyzes their impacts through numerical modeling. Firstly, historical storm tracks and intensities are characterized for the Portuguese northern coast in terms of probability of occurrence. Secondly, several storm events with a high potential of occurrence are generated using a specific tool of the DelftDashboard interface for Delft3D software. Hydrodynamic models are then used to generate an ensemble of simulations to assess the storms’ effects on coastal water levels. Based on the statistical data of the numerical modeling results, a synthesis of the coastal storms’ impacts at different locations within the study area is performed. Depending on the storm category, surge heights can reach 1.10 m above tide levels under simulated conditions on the Portuguese northwestern coast.
Highlights
Coastal flooding as a result of storm occurrences causes hazards to property and coastal populations, which are intensified by the increasing occupation of coastal regions over the last decades.These flood events are the most frequent, costly, and deadly dangers that impact coastal communities.Coastal flooding mainly results from storms and storm surges, and can be aggravated by sea level rise as a result of climate change
The main purpose of this paper is to study storm occurrences on the Portuguese northern coast, explore the characteristics and pathways of the tropical storms that affect the area, and most importantly, with the aid of hydrodynamic models, evaluate the vulnerability of the coast to storm surges
Delft3D models ran with simulation times between 4 and 20 days, and each simulation lasted from about 40–60 min
Summary
Coastal flooding as a result of storm occurrences causes hazards to property and coastal populations, which are intensified by the increasing occupation of coastal regions over the last decades.These flood events are the most frequent, costly, and deadly dangers that impact coastal communities.Coastal flooding mainly results from storms and storm surges, and can be aggravated by sea level rise as a result of climate change. Coastal flooding as a result of storm occurrences causes hazards to property and coastal populations, which are intensified by the increasing occupation of coastal regions over the last decades. These flood events are the most frequent, costly, and deadly dangers that impact coastal communities. Coastal flooding mainly results from storms and storm surges, and can be aggravated by sea level rise as a result of climate change. In the last decade, the successive breaking of high temperature records has been a growing concern at a global level. Climate change has become a high priority global problem [1]. Average global surface temperatures have increased by approximately 0.6 ◦ C since the late 19th century, with 95% confidence limits of nearly 0.4 and 0.8 ◦ C
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