Hazard Assessment of Debris Flow Based on the TFSE: A Case along Jinsha River close to the Jinsha Dam Site in China

Abstract

Debris flows are common natural hazards in China. The outbreak of debris flows in reservoir region not only affects the stability of the hydropower stations dam, but also threatens the safety of human life and their property. Therefore, hazard assessment and protection of debris flows close to the dam are necessary and important. In this paper, SPOT5 remote sensing images and DEM model and scene investigation are introduced to acquire the characteristics of debris flow gullies. Ten debris flow occurrence related factors were selected. Then, on the basic of analyzing the relationship of the major factors and fuzzification of debris flow hazard degree, the model of two-stage fuzzy synthetic evaluation (TFSE) was established for hazard assessment. The debris flow risk under different designed rainstorm frequency was calculated. By the evaluation results, we can know that with the design storm intensity increases, the risk of debris flow increases, which is consistent with the actual situation.