Hazard Assessment of Debris-Flow along the Baicha River in Heshigten Banner, Inner Mongolia, China.

Chen Cao,Cencen Niu,Lianjing Zheng,Jianping Chen,Peihua Xu

doi:10.3390/ijerph14010030

Chen Cao, Cencen Niu + Show 3 more

Open Access

https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph14010030

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Abstract

This study focused on a cloud model approach for considering debris-flow hazard assessment, in which the cloud model provided a model for transforming the qualitative and quantitative expressions. Additionally, the entropy method and analytical hierarchy process were united for calculating the parameters weights. The weighting method avoids the disadvantages inherent in using subjective or objective methods alone. Based on the cloud model and component weighting method, a model was established for the analysis of debris-flow hazard assessment. There are 29 debris-flow catchments around the pumped storage power station in the study area located near Zhirui (Inner Mongolia, China). Field survey data and 3S technologies were used for data collection. The results of the cloud model calculation process showed that of the 29 catchments, 25 had low debris-flow hazard assessment, three had moderate hazard assessment, and one had high hazard assessment. The widely used extenics method and field geological surveys were used to validate the proposed approach. This approach shows high potential as a useful tool for debris-flow hazard assessment analysis. Compared with other prediction methods, it avoids the randomness and fuzziness in uncertainty problems, and its prediction results are considered reasonable.

Highlights

Debris-flow (DF) is a common nature disaster that always occurs in the catchments of mountain areas
This study focused on a hazard assessment of a series of debris-flow catchments along the Baicha River near the town of Zhirui in Heshigten Banner, Inner Mongolia, China
This paper presents an innovative method based on a cloud model (CM), which has the ability to express fuzziness and randomness to address this shortcoming

Summary

Introduction

Debris-flow (DF) is a common nature disaster that always occurs in the catchments of mountain areas. The high mobility of DF has a great impact on people’s lives and properties, as well as infrastructure [1,2,3,4]. Since the 1970s, the annual deaths caused by DF in China have reached more than. The direct economic losses are estimated at about 3.3 billion to 3.6 billion CNY per year [6,7,8]. Researchers have paid close attention to the topic of DF hazard assessment.

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