Hazard analysis and social vulnerability to predict the loss population is affected by natural disaster of landslides in the Pesisir Selatan District of West Sumatra

Abstract

Pesisir Selatan District is one of the areas in West Sumatra that often experiences natural disasters of landslides. Natural disasters of landslides that occur in this area often cause losses in the form of property or human lives and disruption of road access to other areas. The aims of this research were to analyze the hazard of landslides based on land characteristics, analyze the carrying capacity of the region based on landslide hazards, analyze social vulnerability, and analyze prediction of Population loss. The method used in this study is a survey method with a geomorphological approach. Data used in the form of primary data and secondary data. The technical analysis used is in the form of scoring to analyze landslide hazards and GIS used to analyze the carrying capacity of the region, vulnerability, and exposed populations. The results showed that the hazard of landslides in the study area was divided into three, namely low, medium, and high hazards. The hazard of low landslides is generally found in plain areas near the coast. This area is formed due to the results of sedimentation processes from both rivers and the sea. The hazard of moderate landslides is generally found in hilly areas, and the hazard of high landslides is generally found in hilly or mountainous areas. The hazard of landslides is caused by physical characteristics in the form of high rainfall, steep slopes to very steep slope, high rock weathering. Social vulnerability in the research area is divided into two parts, namely low and medium. Low social vulnerability is caused by the ratio of male population more than female population, ratio of vulnerable groups, ratio of poor Population, and a ratio of disabled Population. Social vulnerability is being caused by a greater number of female populations, ratios of vulnerable groups, and disabled Population. The prediction of population loss found in the Lakitan Tengah area is in Lengayang Subdistrict, which is 11,869 Population.