Haynesville Shale: Predicting Long-Term Production and Residual Analysis to Identify Well Intereference and Frac Hits

Abstract

Abstract This study analyzes the production data from 2,755 horizontal wells in the Haynesville shale. Correlations were generated to predict 4,5,6, and 7-year cumulative productions from initial 6,12 and 24-months production data. These correlations can help in field development planning and economic analysis. The residuals (Predicted – Actual Cumulative Production) from these correlations were also analyzed and this technique can be used to identify wells affected by interference, refracturing, frac-hits, etc. The cumulative production estimates from the developed correlations were also compared with the corresponding estimates from the DCA equations (seven different DCA methods used). The accuracy of prediction based on correlations developed in this study is at par with the various standard DCA methods published and used in the industry. The correlations are much faster to use and easier to implement for a large number of wells. Another objective of the paper was to develop P10, P50 and P90 type curves for the Haynesville shale using the available production data. A subset of the total wells i.e. 150 wells evenly distributed throughout the study area, were used for predicting type curves. These type curves were generated and compared using different Decline Curve Analysis (DCA) models. The different DCA methods predicted an uncertainty of 5 to 27 % for the P10, P50 and P90 production profiles.