Have the Eurozone economies converged on a common European cycle?

Abstract

The dating of a possible European business cycle has been inconclusive. At this stage, there is no consensus on the existence of such a cycle, or of its periodicity and amplitude, or of the relationship of individual member countries to that cycle. Yet convergence to a common cycle is the key consideration for a successful economic performance in any currency union. The confusion over whether and to what degree the Eurozone countries are converging on a common cycle is one example of this lack of consensus. In general, countries may vary in the components and characteristics that make up their output cycles; and also in their position around the output cycle at each point of time. In this paper we show how to decompose a business cycle into a time–frequency framework. This then allows us to decompose movements in output, at the European level and in member countries, into the component cycles and permits us to see how those component cycles (and the coherence between them) have varied in importance and cyclical characteristics over time. That in turn allows us to determine if the inconclusive convergence results obtained in the past have appeared because member countries have some cycles in common—but diverge at other cycles as a result of the asymmetric transmission of shocks, or external factors, or country specific shocks.