Have Pesticides and Fertilizers Improved Agricultural Development? The Threshold Effect Based on China’s Agricultural Film Usage

Abstract

The use of agricultural films, pesticides, and fertilizers has increased in China, leading to the degradation of the agricultural ecological environment. Based on the panel data of 30 provinces in China from 2010 to 2021, this paper takes agricultural film usage as the threshold variable to study the impact of pesticide and fertilizer usage on agricultural development. The research results show that a single threshold effect of agricultural film usage is significant. When agricultural film usage is both a core and threshold variable, that is lower than the threshold value, every 1% increase in agricultural film usage will reduce agricultural output value by 0.9862%, and the impact is significant. When agricultural film usage crosses the threshold value, every 1% increase in agricultural film usage will increase agricultural output value by 1.1843%, and the impact is significant. When pesticide usage is the core variable, regardless of whether agricultural film usage is below or above the threshold, pesticide usage promotes agricultural development. Its impact is significant. When fertilizer input is a core variable, regardless of whether agricultural film usage is below or above the threshold, the use of fertilizers hinders agricultural development. The impact of fertilizer input on agricultural development is significant. Through empirical testing, this paper explores the deep relationship between agricultural film usage, pesticide usage and fertilizer input on agricultural development. These can effectively allocate agricultural production factors, transform the mode of agricultural economic growth, achieve the coordinated development of the ecological environment and agricultural economy and provide data support for the formulation of agricultural green development policies.