Have countries moved towards sustainable development or not? Definition, criteria, indicators and empirical analysis

Abstract

Have countries moved towards sustainable development (SD) or not? To answer the question, first, a new SD definition, i.e. “Achieving higher and more equally distributed well-being levels within ecological limits”, is proposed. Second, based on the definition and from a global perspective, four criteria are established to judge whether countries have moved towards SD, which are: (1) well-being levels have been higher and more equally distributed; (2) levels of ecological consumption have been lower; (3) ecological capacities have strengthened; and (4) the Ultimate Efficiency, which is the efficiency of transforming ecological consumption into human well-being, has improved. Developing countries with ecological consumption below global average do not have to meet the second criterion. Third, the Happy and Equal Human Development Index, the Ecological Footprint and the Biocapacity are selected to measure human well-being, ecological consumption and ecological capacities, respectively and two consistent methods are used to measure the Ultimate Efficiency. The empirical analysis of 102 countries during 2011–2016 demonstrates that 19 countries have met the required four or three criteria and moved towards SD and that 12 countries have met none of the required criteria and moved against SD. The main contribution is to provide a clear SD definition, specific criteria and reliable indicators for measuring national performance and informing decision making on moving towards SD. Therefore, whether countries have moved towards SD or not can be judged and measured continuously and regularly. Future research needs to detailedly explore why countries have met or not met one certain criterion.