Have consumption-based CO2 emissions in developed countries peaked?

Abstract

This study innovatively divided consumption-based CO2 emissions of developed countries into domestic and foreign components using an environmentally extended multi-regional input–output model, and revealed their different driving factors using the structural decomposition analysis method. The results showed that the consumption-based emission peaked in 16 developed countries, with 14 countries peaking around 2008. Domestic emissions in all 16 developed countries had peaked, most of which accounted for 40–70% of the total consumption-based emissions. However, the foreign emissions driven by 9 peaking countries still kept increasing. Regarding domestic emissions, the decline of domestic carbon intensity was the main driving factor across 16 peaking countries. In terms of foreign emissions, carbon intensity decline, especially in main medium- and low-income countries, was the dominant factor in the CO2 emissions decrease. Significant improvements in production technology levels of medium-income countries played a key role in weakening the carbon-increasing effects of foreign emissions during the post-peak period. Thus, to further promote global carbon emissions to peak as soon as possible, peaking developed countries should provide more emission reduction funds and technologies to support the decline in carbon intensity and the improvement of production technology in medium- and low-income countries.