Havana's Transportation System: Future Scenarios

Abstract

Abstract This paper develops four alternative, plausible scenarios for Havana's future transportation system, once the U.S. embargo is lifted. It uses a scenario planning methodology that identifies social, technological, economic, environmental and political drivers (STEEP) and their implications to isolate the two most uncertain and important drivers of what might happen in the future: political will and availability of funds for major transportation improvements. These two drivers serve as axes to generate the narrative scenarios: Havana Gridlock—brought about by the rapid increase of private vehicles; Urban Removal—with the availability of funds, Havana struggles to accommodate the increasing private vehicle fleet by road building, widening roads and resulting housing demolition; IT-Empowered Mobility—where lack of funds but strong planning, regulation of private vehicles, and widespread IT adoption result in high levels of mobility; Leapfrog Scenario, where planning, regulation and availability of funds for transportation infrastructure result in a high mobility scenario powered by renewables. The discussion section focuses on several issues underlying the scenarios: the importance of transportation choices for tourism; the distinction between automobility and personal mobility, and alternative forms of mobility. The paper concludes with reflections on the sequencing of the scenarios and the plausibility of the leapfrog scenario.