Has there been a turning point in the numbers of AIDS and HIV antibody positive cases in Ireland?

Abstract

Major developments in the prevention and treatment of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection and acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS) have taken place in recent years. Changes in the size of the HIV and AIDS epidemic need to be monitored to assess these developments and plan future services. To describe temporal trends in the incidence of HIV and AIDS in Ireland, describing separately the major risk groups, and to explore possible associations between these trends with developments in care. The annual numbers of HIV and AIDS in Ireland were analysed to determine whether there has been a turning point in incidence. For AIDS, there has been an overall decrease in numbers since 1993, with both homosexual and intravenous drug users (IDU) risk groups exhibiting a decrease. For HIV antibody positive individuals, overall numbers have remained constant. However, there has been an upward trend in the heterosexual risk group and a downward trend in the IDU risk group. Thus both AIDS and HIV numbers exhibit turning points. Declines in HIV and AIDS incidence in the homosexual and IDU risk groups are indirectly attributable to health safety and treatment programmes. The increase in HIV antibody positive cases among heterosexuals may reflect a relapse in safe sex behaviour.