Has the provincial-level residential building sector reached the carbon peak? An integrated assessment model

Abstract

Assessing the historical peak situation at the provincial level is critical to better predict the future evolution of residential building carbon emissions. However, the provincial carbon peak status of this sector is still unclear. To this end, this study proposes a carbon peak situation integrated assessment model (CPSIAM), which is utilized to comprehensively evaluate the provincial peak situation of total carbon emissions, carbon emissions per capita and carbon emissions per floor space of urban and rural residential buildings and figure out carbon peaking progress in each province. Then, the driving mechanism of differentiated carbon peak status of provincial residential building carbon emissions are examined using the panel STIRPAT model and group regression model. Results show that as for the three residential building carbon emission indicators, Heilongjiang and Shanghai have both reached their full peaks as of 2020, however the former is in passive decline and the latter is in an active peak. Population, population structure, and floor space per capita are the main variables causing the differentiated peak status. This study not only offers a general methodological system for assessing the regional carbon peak situation, but also empowers policymakers to develop effective and differentiated emission-reduction measures based on their knowledge of peaked regions.