Has the prediction of the South China Sea summer monsoon improved since the late 1970s?

Abstract

Based on the evaluation of state-of-the-art coupled ocean–atmosphere general circulation models (CGCMs) from the ENSEMBLES (Ensemble-based Predictions of Climate Changes and Their Impacts) and DEMETER (Development of a European Multimodel Ensemble System for Seasonal to Interannual Prediction) projects, it is found that the prediction of the South China Sea summer monsoon (SCSSM) has improved since the late 1970s. These CGCMs show better skills in prediction of the atmospheric circulation and precipitation within the SCSSM domain during 1979–2005 than that during 1960–1978. Possible reasons for this improvement are investigated. First, the relationship between the SSTs over the tropical Pacific, North Pacific and tropical Indian Ocean, and SCSSM has intensified since the late 1970s. Meanwhile, the SCSSM-related SSTs, with their larger amplitude of interannual variability, have been better predicted. Moreover, the larger amplitude of the interannual variability of the SCSSM and improved initializations for CGCMs after the late 1970s contribute to the better prediction of the SCSSM. In addition, considering that the CGCMs have certain limitations in SCSSM rainfall prediction, we applied the year-to-year increment approach to these CGCMs from the DEMETER and ENSEMBLES projects to improve the prediction of SCSSM rainfall before and after the late 1970s.