Has the 'Golden Age of Gas' bypassed Australia?

Abstract

In June 2011, the International Energy Agency released the 2011 World Energy Outlook (WEO) series that posed the thought-provoking question: ‘Are we entering a golden age of gas?’ In response to this bold question, this paper first investigates the world’s electricity supply by each fuel type and how the WEO expectations have changed over time. This helps define the progress of the world targets for the ‘Golden Age of Gas’. To provide context to Australian gas conditions, this paper delves deeply into two of the most important international markets in the world: USA and China. Each of these countries are placed in the five fastest growing gas production countries in the world but have had substantially different engagements with gas and their domestic electricity profiles. Each country’s response to the electricity generation-source dilemma has resulted in diametrically opposed carbon emission outcomes. Finally, this paper turns to the Australian experience with gas. As the fifth fastest growing gas producing nation, and now the largest liquefied natural gas exporter in the world, Australia has rapidly shifted from energy price isolation to having strong links to international energy prices. These international price linkages have been applied across both gas and coal markets and have occurred simultaneously with the combination of a wave of renewable energy construction, traditional energy generation exit and paralysed government policy. This leaves a revised question: has the Golden Age of Gas passed Australia?