Abstract
Abstract The Belt and Road (B&R) is a major initiative and vision for China and the world to jointly create prosperity. Based on the data of resident credit card consumption in 291 cities in China from 2011 to 2016, this article establishes a consumption relationship model for cities along the B&R to investigate the impact of the initiative on resident consumption. Through the DID model, there are the following findings. First, the B&R Initiative has a significant positive impact on the resident consumption in cities along the route. Second, the B&R Initiative has a significant effect on the promotion of various industries, and the crowding-out effect of government investment is relatively small. The research conclusions are of reference significance for policy formulation on the specific practice path and detailed measures of the B&R Initiative.
Highlights
As pointed out in the report to the 19th National Congress of the Communist Party of China, the Belt and Road (B&R) foreign cooperation should achieve ‘the communication of policy, the connectivity of facilities, the smooth flow of trade, the integration of capital, and the understanding of the people’
The credit card consumption of urban residents in the treatment group increased significantly after the B&R Initiative was proposed, while there was no significant difference in the control group
The research results show that the B&R Initiative has a significant promoting effect on the consumption of relevant urban residents in China
Summary
As pointed out in the report to the 19th National Congress of the Communist Party of China, the Belt and Road (B&R) foreign cooperation should achieve ‘the communication of policy, the connectivity of facilities, the smooth flow of trade, the integration of capital, and the understanding of the people’. The resident consumption in various provinces and cities in China has become the main content of ‘the smooth flow of trade’ and ‘the understanding of the people’ in the B&R Initiative. On the basis of existing research results and the micro-transaction data of domestic enterprises and residents, this article will conduct a comprehensive empirical study on the effect of the B&R Initiative for stimulating the domestic resident consumption. This article will estimate the impact of the B&R Initiative on the livelihood consumption and industrial investment of relevant domestic cities, with reference to the Vision and Action to Promote the Joint Construction of the Silk Road Economic Belt and the 21st Century Maritime Silk Road (hereinafter referred to as the Vision and Action) and the double difference (DID) estimation method (Chen Qiang, 2014).
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