Has Rural Public Services Weakened Population Migration in the Sichuan–Chongqing Region? Spatiotemporal Association Patterns and Their Influencing Factors

Abstract

The association between rural public services (RPSs) and population migration (PM) has become a key aspect of rapid urbanization in developing countries and an important breakthrough for improving rural–urban relations. An in-depth analysis of the heterogeneity of the weakening effect of RPSs on PM at different transformation phases and the internal mechanism of the evolution of association patterns driven by RPSs and PM helps to ensure better co-ordinated urban and rural development. This paper establishes an interactive analysis framework for measuring the spatiotemporal association and regional differences between RPSs and PM in the Sichuan–Chongqing region (SCR), and reveals the influence mechanism by employing multiscale geographically weighted regression (MGWR). The results indicate that the association rapidly increased with clear spatial heterogeneity across topographic units and the weakening effect of RPSs on PM begin to diverge during the urban–rural transition. The natural, economic, social, and urban–rural disparity factors in terms of the association exhibit significant spatial variability. In mountainous areas, where topography dominates, RPSs fail to effectively weaken rural migration. However, in the plain areas, urbanization is the main driver of urban–rural transition, and the adaptive upgrading and transformation of RPSs has made their weakening effect stronger, thus alleviating rural exodus and increasing population concentration. All these findings show that differentiated optimization strategies adhering to the association trends should be proposed for a deeper integration of rural revitalization and new urbanization in the SCR.